In selected packaging markets where paper and plastic compete, plastic’s overall volume
share will continue to expand, reaching 49 percent by 2012.  This percentage understates
plastic’s share since less plastic is required than paper in most applications due to its
lighter weight.  Plastic’s share of the market will expand more slowly than in the past decade,
as a number of packaging applications are now fairly mature in terms of the share controlled
by plastic.  Nonetheles, material enhancements which enable extended shelf life and
increased durability, along with reduced material requirements and the addition of
convenience features such as resealability and steam cooking, will fuel continued opportunities
for plastic packaging.

Plastic packaging growth is forecast to outpace that of paper packaging through 2012 in
all competitive markets covered in this study and is projected to climb 2.4 percent per year 
through 2012.  Advances will result from plastic’s competitive cost and performance 
advantages, including light weight, moisture resistance, enhanced barrier properties and
puncture resistance.  The fastest market share increases for plastic will occur in pet food
and soy beverage packaging, with good opportunities also anticipated in protective packaging,
foodservice, dairy product, fruit beverage and frozen food applications.

Slowest volume advances for plastic will occur in relatively saturated markets such as milk
and baked goods, though plastic will log more rapid growth in smaller sized milk bottles, 
driven by conversions from gabletop cartons in schools and quick service restaurants.
Additionally,below-average growth for plastic in retail bags will be the result of 
environmental concerns and/or legislative restrictions. 

Due to inroads by plastic, paper consumption in most markets will post marginal gains or 
continue to decline through 2012.  In a few markets ? soy beverages, foodservice,
protective packaging,frozen food, dairy products, and meat, poultry and seafood paper
demand is expected to climb above the average pace despite further inroads by plastic.
Despite a sluggish outlook for folding, aseptic and gabletop cartons in a number of these
markets, aggregate rigid packaging demand will expand at a pace similar to that of flexible
packaging based on above-average growth for tubs and cups, trays and other plastic
containers such as clamshells and two-piece high visibility plastic containers.